A Philippine climate coalition has urged the Marcos administration to declare a State of Imminent Disaster ahead of the expected peak of the Super El Niño.
Aksyon Klima Pilipinas warned that current preparations may fall short as drought, water shortages and agricultural losses intensify.
The group said in an Oct. 8 statement that the country was already feeling the effects of what it described as the strongest El Niño in recent history. The phenomenon could peak before the end of 2026 and persist into the first half of 2027.
“We have been warned: the peak of the Super El Niño is fast approaching,” the coalition said.
The group said 106 localities had already been placed under a state of calamity, while agricultural losses had exceeded P5.5 billion, affecting more than 200,000 farmers and fisherfolk.
By March, it warned, no province would be safe from drought. Localized heat-index readings could exceed 45 degrees Celsius, particularly in densely populated urban areas.
Agriculture and fisheries could suffer nearly P78 billion in direct losses and more than P200 billion in indirect losses, while millions of Filipinos could face food and water insecurity, according to the group.
Aksyon Klima Pilipinas acknowledged that the government was in a better position to respond than it had been a decade ago or during the moderate El Niño two years ago.
It cited improved early warning systems, a framework for anticipatory action, small-scale water harvesting and farm reservoir projects, and greater familiarity with agricultural adaptation technologies.
But the coalition warned that proposed changes in the 2027 National Expenditures Program could undermine those gains, particularly reductions in the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Fund and the budget of the National Irrigation Administration.
It said some lawmakers had proposed amendments to make the 2027 budget “El Niño-proof,” but warned that the reductions “threaten to fully undermine these efforts and enhance the vulnerabilities of communities for the next few months.”
The coalition also acknowledged the development of an updated National Action Plan for El Niño, but said government preparations remained insufficient for the scale of the expected impacts.
“The proposed irrigation budget only responds to thousands of hectares instead of millions,” the group said, adding that hundreds of thousands of Filipinos, particularly farmers and fisherfolk, could be left without social protection when they need it most.
It warned that national and local systems for food, water, energy and health could come under severe strain over at least the next six months.
Among its recommendations, Aksyon Klima Pilipinas called on the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council to recommend that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declare a State of Imminent Disaster under Republic Act 12287.
The coalition said such a declaration would unlock pre-disaster financing and trigger anticipatory measures, particularly in provinces expected to experience drought earlier.
“Every peso spent on anticipatory action saves at least four pesos in emergency response and recovery costs,” it said.
The group also called for the complete and updated National Action Plan for El Niño to be made public, including its implementation, financing and monitoring strategies.
Congress should substantially increase funding for irrigation system repairs before passing the 2027 budget, the coalition said, with projects directed toward agricultural areas expected to be hardest hit by drought.
It also urged lawmakers to restore at least P2 billion to the Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation, saying proposed funding had been reduced to P4.5 billion from P6.5 billion in the 2026 budget.
The coalition said matching or exceeding the P6.5-billion allocation could bring about one million additional beneficiaries under crop insurance, with subsistence producers given priority.
Aksyon Klima Pilipinas also called for a national minimum water-service guarantee to ensure a stable supply of affordable, safe and secure water.
“Access to water is a universal human right to which no Filipino should be denied,” the coalition said.
It called on the government to go beyond assurances of bottled water supplies and establish measurable minimum service standards, clear responsibilities for delivery and transparent monitoring for drought-exposed communities.
The coalition also proposed an El Niño-responsive fast-track grant window under the People’s Survival Fund. It said half of the fund’s remaining 2026 budget and its proposed P1-billion allocation for 2027 should be made available through a simplified process, with fifth- and sixth-class municipalities projected to be hardest hit given priority.
Aksyon Klima Pilipinas also linked the country’s preparedness gaps to money it said had been lost through corruption in mismanaged flood-control projects.
“Some of the trillions of pesos lost to corruption in mismanaged flood control projects – most of which has still not been recovered – could have been used to further enhance strategies being implemented,” the coalition said.
It argued that additional funding for El Niño preparedness should be treated as an investment rather than an expense.
“Any augmentation for El Niño-proofing is not an expense; it is an investment that will save lives and money. The question is not whether the Philippines can afford to act, but whether it can afford not to do it sufficiently,” the group said.
The group said the government had more time to prepare for the coming El Niño peak and more experience from previous episodes.
“How the [Marcos] administration responds to this once-in-a-lifetime challenge will determine whether the promoted ‘predictive’ style of governance to climate and disaster risks is genuine or just another lip service,” the coalition said.
