HomeCommentaryHouston, we have a problem: 2022 and beyond

Houston, we have a problem: 2022 and beyond

Think of this as an old writer’s musings, after-dinner ruminations, or better yet, observations of the political situation facing the country as 2022 draws near

Call what I have to write today anything but a bold prediction.

No, it’s not an expert forecast of what is to come. It’s still too early to tell. Besides, trends matter little in a country that whirls along the borderlands of unpredictability and where capriciousness seems to be the national pastime.

Neither is this an opinion I’d happily die holding while facing a firing squad. Think of it as an old writer’s musings, my after-dinner ruminations, or better yet, observations of the political situation facing us as 2022 draws near. At best, these are sweet-nothings my wife and I share before climbing into bed.




Just a backdrop: I’ve been quite busy the last few weeks asking family, friends, acquaintances and, for the most part, a bunk ton of political urchins on the possible choices people have in mind come election year.

This is, of course, assuming that my beloved yet benighted country still believes in the result of democratic elections. I mean, let’s face it. I don’t want to see what happened to America—Republican zealots threatening violence over the result of their recent elections—happen to the Philippines. We have more than our share of violence without fanatics getting in the way of my online shopping and Zoom lectures.

All the same, the idea that some candidates indulge in election fraud has been hanging over our heads for the longest time. It’s that thorn in the flesh that wouldn’t let up.

Thanks to recent developments, the crushing blow delivered days ago by the Supreme Court to Bongbong Marcos’ election protest against Vice-President Leni Robredo—the third in a row, if I’m not mistaken—restored my hopes not only in humanity but in our legal system. At least, to a certain extent, it did.

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Sen. Leila de Lima likewise won in one out of three trumped-up drug-related cases not long ago. Two more are awaiting decisions in the sidelights. It’s as if the courts realized all of a sudden the extent of the injustices heaped upon the head of the senator that it must now be turned right side up.

We’re not out of the woods, not just yet. On the contrary, I’m expecting Marcos Junior to do a return bout the likes of which could leave this country in crutches if we’re not cautious. His largely nauseating sense of entitlement tells me as much.

Do you think Marcos Junior is now thinking of running second fiddle to Sara Duterte, that is, after his loss to incumbent Vice President Robredo in the courts? To run as Vice President in the interim until, well, he gets a shot at the Presidency in the next term?

Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio of Davao takes a “groufie” with guests during the commemoration of the 123rd anniversary of the martyrdom of national hero Dr. Jose Rizal at the Rizal Park in Davao City on Dec. 30, 2019. (Photo by Karl Norman Alonzo/Presidential Photo)

Apparently, offline chatrooms [translation: word on the street] are rife with talks of Marcos having no choice but to run second fiddle to the presidential daughter. If tarpaulins along EDSA of Sara Duterte being egged on to run in 2022 are any indication of a plan to do just that, I’d say Bongbong might take a crack at it. That’s probably the closest Marcos Junior could get to the seat of power without having to steal it.

As for Davao City mayor Sara Duterte, it seems highly likely that she would be the strongest contender in 2022, what with the full machinery of his father backing up her bid. A Duterte-Duterte tandem has been flaunted in the last several months, not the least by Atty. Salvador Panelo himself, as a ticket to watch for. Some believe that Sara Duterte had already pulled much of the Visayas and Mindanao regions to her side, leaving Metro Manila as the loose cannon.

The Sara Duterte tarpaulins along EDSA may just be the precursor to a long-awaited survey in the city of how she might fare if the polls were to be held today. The masses, remember, still hold Duterte in good standing regardless of the blood on his hands. They allegedly care little for vague concepts such as “freedom” and “transparency,” but instead rely heavily on the here and now, and the tangible benefits they might enjoy. 

Some even say that regardless of the thousands murdered without due process, the drug war still resonates positively to a huge chunk of the populace. The middleclass, on the other hand, while understanding the importance of such principles as freedom and due process, is still divided right down the middle, leaving the opposition very little to go on in terms of sizeable support.

This much I can say for now: should a Duterte-Duterte tandem wins in 2022, the killings will continue, the mediocrity will not stop. Worse, more draconian laws will be set in place using the pandemic as an excuse. Filipinos will be held hostage to an instability this country may not be able to mend for decades to come.

The jolt of the day came from former defense secretary Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro. His Facebook and Twitter pages ran amuck with memes hinting of a possible presidential bid. While this may come as a shock to many, it’s not all that surprising. He was former Pres. Gloria Arroyo’s bet years ago, the same Gloria Arroyo who seems to be wielding so much influence and power under the Duterte administration.

Could Gibo be another one of those Trojan Horses set to demolish or divide a possible solid vote for Leni Robredo? I wonder. Gibo, if you remember, lost in the 2010 presidential race with an 11.33% pull. Be that as it may, that 4.09 million votes came largely from the middleclass. To break up Robredo’s vote, he may just be one of several Trojan Horses to do it. However, people have not forgotten his association with Arroyo.

President Rodrigo Duterte chats with Senator Emmanuel “Manny” Pacquiao during the senator’s birthday celebration at the KCC Convention and Events Center in General Santos City on Dec. 17, 2018. (Photo by Robinson Niñal Jr. / Presidential Photo)

Let’s not talk of Manny Pacquiao. He should stick to boxing.

There’s the younger crop of hopefuls who, by far, has been the country’s best bet for 2022: Manila mayor Isko Moreno and Pasig mayor Vico Sotto. Word on the street, however, is that they’re too young (translation: inexperienced). Pasig City sparkles today with Vico Sotto as its mayor, but the country needs someone with more than sufficient experience not only to run a country weighed down by a ton of baggage, but repair the damage Duterte has done. Not as easy as it looks, if you ask me.

Another name cropped up in my conversations with some people. Word on the street is that Ramon Ang, or popularly known as RSA, of San Miguel Corporation (SMC) may be the fresh face we all need in a post-Duterte dispensation. They said he has shown a lot of promise in terms of decisions made during dire times, such as the pandemic.

SMC’s COVID-19 response, according to the news, has topped Php13 billion just four months after the Luzon-wide lockdown came into force. This is more than I can say for this largely indecisive administration, which is more into simulations and garbled press conferences than work needed to address the problems.

Think about it: the 9.5% slump in the country’s gross domestic product—the worst post-war GDP slump in ages—might just need a Ramon Ang to get it back on track. However, RSA has been tagged as being a supporter of the Duterte administration, some say even the war on drugs, which by now has murdered tens of thousands. As a businessman dependent on government nods, this is quite understandable. Lamentable, too, in so many levels. However, the presidency seems to be the farthest from his mind, so the discussion ends here—for now.

Philippine Vice President Maria Leonor “Leni” Gerona Robredo gives a media briefing in this photo taken in 2019.(Photo by Jire Carreon)

Vice President Leni Robredo seems to be every middleclass powerbroker’s best bet against Sara Duterte. But, that’s just the thing: the VP seems to be invisible to the masses, or at least, that’s what some people have observed. She allegedly fails to resonate in terms of being someone who could get the job done in more practical ways.

I find that valuation a bit out of whack. Lest we forget, Robredo’s efforts during the onslaught of Typhoon Ulysses did much to polish that rather bland mass perception. She took Duterte’s poisoned arrows with so much grace and professional conduct that it’s impossible to miss the impact of her labors on behalf of the victims.

When the Vice President was invited to co-chair an inter-government panel on the war on drugs—believed by many as this administration’s way of setting her up to fail—still she accepted the offer. After proposing to have the United Nations investigate allegations of systematic murders, she was once again shown the door.

Robredo getting the boot tells me she has succeeded in more ways than Duterte could, with all his power, put her down. Duterte’s potshots against Robredo also tells me there is more to this raging insecurity in the President than meets the eye.

The opposition’s work is pretty much cut out for them from now till 2022. They have roughly 13 months before the campaign trail goes full throttle. Allow me to just add that after a year into the lockdown, we are still awaiting government’s plans for a nationwide vaccination. Simulations we don’t need.

Hence, if having another Duterte doesn’t rattle the bejeezus out of you, then I have nothing more to say. For now, it’s still anybody’s game.

Joel Pablo Salud is an editor, journalist and the author of several books of fiction and political nonfiction. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official editorial position of LiCAS.news.

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