Filipinos will still see an increase in COVID-19 cases in the Philippine capital in the coming days even as experts said a downtrend will start sometime in September.
“We are projecting the decrease in cases in [the capital region] will happen maybe around the first or second week of September,” said Guido David of the independent group OCTA Rrsearch.
In an interview over CNN Philippines, David said the situation will, however, depend on the trend and government interventions on quarantine restrictions.
David said Metro Manila’s active cases may even reach 60,000 or up to 70,000 before the end of September.
The Metro Manila Development Authority earlier said that as of August 21, there were 21,765 active cases in the capital region.
But David noted that they are already seeing a decrease in the region’s growth rate and reproduction number so far.
On Tuesday, August 24, the Department of Health reported a slight decrease in new COVID-19 cases with 12,067 infections.
The relatively low tally is due to a lower laboratory output on Sunday, said the health department.
The country now has a total of 1,869,691 cases, including 127,703 active ones.
Of the active cases, 95.5% are mild, 1.7% are asymptomatic, 1.2% are severe, and 0.6% are in critical condition.
Data from the health department showed that 73% of the intensive care unit beds nationwide are in use while 53% of the mechanical ventilators are occupied.
In the National Capital Region, 74% of the ICU beds are being utilized by patients while 60% of the mechanical ventilators are in use.
OCTA Research’s David said that Metro Manila is currently averaging over 3,965 cases a day, a bit higher than its last published report.
In its August 22 report covering August 15 to 21, OCTA said the region still averaged 3,819 daily cases over the past seven days, with a 24% growth rate (down from 48%), and a 1.67 (down from 1.90) reproduction number during this period.
Meanwhile, OCTA maintained that its projected 20,000 new cases in the Philippines will likely happen “this week or next week,” since cases in Cagayan, Tuguegarao, and other areas are still rising.
“We think that we will reach 20,000 cases, it could happen this week or by next week. Cases will continue to rise. As I have mentioned before, it will get worse before it gets better,” David said in the CNN interview.
